从太湖流域旱涝史料看历史气候信息处理   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14  

陈家其 《地理学报》1987,(3)

历史气候信息处理建立在信息提取的基础上,目的在于建立一套方法,将定性的历史气候信息转化为气候变化参数,并消除各种不均—性,从而建立历史气候序列。本文着重介绍建立太湖流域历史旱涝等级序列的方法与步骤: 1)确立信息源,建立信息网络;2)站点等级的确定与订正;3)弱信息处理;4)信息的综合。  相似文献   

The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Xiongwen Chen  Xin-Shi Zhang  Bai-Lian Li 《Global and Planetary Change》2003,38(3-4):327-337

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.  相似文献   

Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data     

Inessa V. Golovanova  Robert N. Harris  Galina V. Selezniova  Petr Stulc 《Global and Planetary Change》2001,29(3-4)

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.  相似文献   

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area     

Deng Haibin  Lu Longhua  Bian Lingen 《极地研究(英文版)》2005,16(2)

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.  相似文献   

北极海冰消融情景下东北航道通航性能演变分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

黄季夏  张天媛  曹云锋  葛全胜  杨林生 《地理学报》2021,76(5):1051-1064

全球气候增暖,导致北极海冰消融加速,冰上丝绸之路的开通逐渐提上日程。本文针对2030—2070年俄罗斯8个重要港口通过东北航道到达白令海峡的通航性能,采用6种CMIP5气候模式在2种排放情景下的海冰数据,以及PC6破冰船和普通商船2种船型,分别对最优航线、通航时长、可通航里程以及通航成本4项要素进行研究。主要结论为：① 随着时间变化,各条最优通航线路逐渐集中有序,普通商船的通航能力显著提高,到2070年拥有和PC6近似相等的通航能力;② 俄港口到白令海峡间的运输时长每过10 a下降14 h,其中圣彼得堡港运输时长下降最为显著。到2070年,俄港口与白令海峡的经度差每增加1°,该港口的运输时长下降0.4 h;③ 未来50 a,东北航道可通航里程平均每隔10 a增加166 km,其中圣彼得堡港可通航里程的变化模式和平均变化模式最为相近;④ 从北冰洋港口出发的航线通航成本每10 a下降1万美元,商船在高浓度排放情景下总通航成本的下降幅度最明显。结合海冰变化情况,俄中西部港口具有巨大的资源运输潜力。本文量化并评估了东北航道在未来海冰消融情景下的通航性能演变态势,为东北航道通航以及北极港口贸易情况提供了理论和数据支撑。  相似文献   

气候变化对植物多样性的影响研究综述     

何远政  黄文达  赵昕  吕朋  王怀海 《中国沙漠》2021,41(1):59-66

植物多样性是生态系统结构和功能的基础,气候变化已对其产生了深刻的影响,甚至于严重威胁。植物多样性的减少或丧失必然会影响生态系统结构和功能的稳定性,导致严重的生态、经济和社会后果。植物多样性对气候变化的响应受控于气温和水分的动态平衡。本文系统总结了气候变暖和降水格局变化对植物多样性的影响,分析了气候变化对不同生态系统、群落类型、尺度范围（全球尺度、区域尺度、局地尺度）内植物多样性的影响,并归纳了差异的主要影响因素。最后对未来的研究方向做了展望。  相似文献   

模拟增温和改变降雨频率对干旱半干旱区土壤呼吸的影响     

韩丹  李玉霖  杨红玲  宁志英  张子谦 《中国沙漠》2021,41(2):100-108

温度和降水是干旱半干旱区土壤呼吸的重要扰动因子,全球气候变化导致的未来干旱半干旱区增温和降水变率增大对土壤呼吸有着重要影响。研究通过人工设置P_16×2.5mm、P_8×5mm、P_4×10mm、P_2×20mm、P_1×40mm的降雨频率梯度和增温2 ℃左右的控制试验,探讨不同降雨频率和增温处理对干旱半干旱区土壤呼吸的影响,以及土壤呼吸与土壤温湿度的关系及其对降雨频率改变的响应。结果表明：降雨频率和增温单独对土壤呼吸具有极显著影响（P<0.001）,但是两者之间并无交互作用（P>0.5）;在降雨量一定的情况下,土壤呼吸速率随着降雨频率的减小而减小,即多频率小降雨事件激发的土壤呼吸速率大于小频率大降雨事件;增温促进土壤呼吸,提高了约11%的土壤呼吸。本结果有助于对未来干旱半干旱地区全球变暖背景下降雨格局的改变对土壤呼吸产生的影响进行预测,同时也为进一步估算该区域生态系统的碳收支提供参考数据。  相似文献   

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans     

Lijing CHENG  John ABRAHAM  Kevin E.TRENBERTH  John FASULLO  Tim BOYER  Michael E.MANN  Jiang ZHU  Fan WANG  Ricardo LOCARNINI  Yuanlong LI  Bin ZHANG  Fujiang YU  Liying WAN  Xingrong CHEN  Licheng Feng  Xiangzhou SONG  Yulong LIU  Franco RESEGHETTI  Simona SIMONCELLI  Viktor GOURETSKI  Gengxin CHEN  Alexey MISHONOV  Jim REAGAN  Guancheng LI 《大气科学进展》2023,40(6):963-974

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ...  相似文献   

Finance for fossils – The role of public financing in expanding petrochemicals     

《Global Environmental Change》2023

The petrochemicals industry (mainly plastics and fertilizer production) is expanding, despite increasing attention to the environmental impact of petrochemicals. In our paper, we explore the role public finance plays in the petrochemicals industry. We do so by mapping the public and private financial flows into large-scale petrochemical projects for the decade 2010–20 and discuss the role of public financial institutions for the development of the industry globally. Secondly, we provide a detailed analysis of the roles international and national public finance has played in enabling two prominent petrochemical projects: namely the Sadara plant in Saudi Arabia and the Surgil plant in Uzbekistan. The cases are illustrative of the dynamics of state interest and involvement in fossil fuel producing countries as well as of lending and guarantees from foreign export credit agencies (ECAs) and development finance institutions, and how such public finance plays an important role in leveraging private finance. Our findings show how public finance for petrochemicals is highly globalized and to a large degree originates in developed countries. As petrochemical industrial infrastructures are designed to last decades, the public finance thus strongly contributes to the carbon lock-in of the sector and limits the possibilities for low-carbon investments needed to comply with the UN Paris Agreement.  相似文献   

Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions     

《Global Environmental Change》2023

Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.  相似文献